Peer-Reviewed Publications
- Kambala, M. I, Wang, S., & Panta, D. (2026). Interplay Roles of Telework and Climate Hazard Risks in Recent Migration Trends in the United States. Population, Space and Place, 32(4), e70272
- Kambala, M.I. (2023). Colonial Origins of Comparative Development in Ghana. The Journal of Development Studies, 59(2), 188–208.
Featured in The Conversation. See here. - Kambala, M.I. (2023).The Impact of Precolonial Political Centralisation on Local Development: Ghana’s Paradox. Oxford Development Studies, 51(2), 163–178.
Recipient of the Sanjaya Lall Prize for 2023–24.
Working Papers
The Long-run Effects of Africa’s Wave of Democratization (Job Market Paper)
Abstract
I investigate how Africa’s democratization wave of the early 1990s influenced economic performance and long-term development at the national, subnational, and individual levels. At the national level, I find that a transition from nondemocracy to democracy is associated with 1.2 percent higher income per capita, while a full-range increase in the liberal democracy index from 0 to 1 corresponds to a 13 percent increase in income per capita. These income gains operate through improvements in physical capital accumulation, trade openness, human capital formation, and economic liberalization. To strengthen causal identification, I exploit Africa’s colonial borders, which arbitrarily divided ethnically homogeneous communities into present-day consolidated democracies and nondemocracies. This identification strategy allows me to examine the impact of democratization on subnational development and on individual living conditions. Grid cell-level panel fixed effects estimates show that democratization significantly raises subnational development as proxied by nighttime light density. Employing a within-ethnicity geographic regression discontinuity design, I track development disparities from 1992 to 2013. The main results show that while both sides of the border started at comparable development levels in the early 1990s, democratic partitions experienced sustained gains thereafter, becoming 7 percentage points (pp) more likely to have light at night by 2013, representing a 37 percent increase relative to the sample mean. Individual-level survey evidence further shows that residents of democratic partitions report substantially lower economic insecurity, higher educational attainment, greater waged employment, and significantly better access to public infrastructure.
Governing from Below: The Impact of Subnational Governance Quality on Wellbeing
Abstract
Governance shapes individual lives most directly at the local level, where citizens interact daily with the institutions responsible for delivering public services, managing community resources, and responding to citizen needs. Yet the causal relationship between subnational governance quality and individual wellbeing remains poorly understood, particularly in Africa, where local governance varies substantially within countries. This paper uses individual-level survey data from more than 223,000 respondents across 40 African countries to examine how perceived subnational governance quality (SGQ), capturing local government performance, responsiveness, trustworthiness, and perceived corruption, affects subjective wellbeing measured by economic insecurity and self-reported living conditions. OLS estimates show that a one-standard-deviation increase in SGQ reduces economic insecurity by approximately 3 percentage points (pp) and raises the probability of reporting good living conditions by about 7 pp. To establish causality, I instrument for individual SGQ assessments using a leave-out-one community mean, which averages the governance perceptions of \emph{all other} residents in the same community. The IV estimates confirm the causal impact of SGQ on wellbeing. A one-standard-deviation increase in SGQ reduces economic insecurity by over 5 pp and raises the probability of reporting good living conditions by approximately 14 pp. These effects attenuate in rural areas, amplify with education and waged employment, and show no meaningful differences by gender. Mechanisms analysis shows that higher SGQ encourages civic participation, strengthens institutional trust, and improves access to locally managed social services.
Early-life Adversity and Long-term Outcomes: Evidence from the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Outbreak in the Gold Coast
Abstract
This paper investigates the lasting consequences of early-life exposure to a sector-specific economic shock in a low-income setting without formal safety nets. While existing research documents persistent effects of biological shocks such as famines and pandemics, much less is known about shocks that operate purely through income disruption. This study addresses that gap by examining the long-term effects of the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease, an agricultural epidemic that devastated cocoa production in the Gold Coast during the 1940s and operated entirely through income loss rather than direct biological harm. Exploiting variation in exposure across time and space, I find that exposure during early childhood reduced years of schooling by approximately one year and lowered the probability of obtaining any formal education by 8.5 pp. Exposure during school-going years reduced years of schooling by 0.8 years and the probability of formal education by 7 pp. Exposure is also associated with significantly worse adult health outcomes, increasing morbidity by 6.2 to 8.5 pp and disability by 5 to 7.5 pp. In contrast, there is no systematic evidence of long-term effects on labor market participation. Evidence on mechanisms points to disruptions in school progression and a shift toward agricultural employment in adulthood, consistent with reduced access to skill-intensive opportunities rather than labor market exit.