Research

I investigate the long-run effects of Africa’s 1990s democratization wave on economic performance and development. Using a dynamic panel fixed effects model, I first document a robust positive relationship between democratization and income per capita. I find that being in a democratic regime, as opposed to a nondemocratic one, is associated with a 1.2 % higher income per capita, while a full-range increase in the liberal democracy index from 0 to 1 raises income per capita by 13 %. To isolate the causal impact of democratization on long-run development, I exploit African borders that partition historically and culturally homogeneous ethnic groups into present-day consolidated democracies and nondemocracies. In this exercise, I first present grid cell-level panel fixed effects estimates showing a robust positive impact of democratization on subnational development, measured by nighttime light density. I then employ a within-ethnicity geographic regression discontinuity design to compute the development disparities across democratic and nondemocratic partitions over time. I find that democratic and nondemocratic partitions were initially at similar levels of development, but democratic partitions experienced sustained gains over time, leading to persistent divergence. By 2013, grid cells in democratic partitions were about 7 percentage points more likely to have light at night relative to their nondemocratic counterparts. Using individual-level survey data, I further show that democratization improves human development, particularly years of schooling, formal education access, and higher education completion, as well as other socioeconomic outcomes including economic security, employment, and access to public goods.

Research has extensively demonstrated the importance of national governance quality for economic performance and societal wellbeing. Yet, such aggregate analyses often overlook the impact of subnational governance, the level of government closest to the people. Consequently, we know little about the relationship between subnational governance quality (SGQ) and socioeconomic outcomes. This study examines how perceived SGQ — capturing local government performance, responsiveness, trustworthiness, and corruption — influences subjective wellbeing using individual-level survey data from more than 223,000 respondents across 40 African countries. OLS estimates show that a one-standard-deviation increase in SGQ decreases economic insecurity — an index of shortages in food, water, fuel, medical care, and cash income — by about 3 percentage points (pp) and increases the probability of reporting “fairly good” or “very good” living conditions about 7 pp. Because these estimates may be biased due to potential endogeneity, I construct a leave-out-one mean instrument that averages the governance evaluations of all other community members to instrument for an individual’s own assessment. Using this instrument, the results confirm the causal impact of SGQ on subjective wellbeing. Specifically, a one-standard deviation increase in SGQ reduces economic insecurity by over 5 pp and increases the likelihood of reporting “fairly good” or “very good” living conditions by about 14 pp. These effects attenuate in rural areas, strengthen with education and waged employment, but show no meaningful differences by gender.

A large body of work highlights that early-life conditions shape adult outcomes. However, most of this evidence comes from developed economies where safety nets are robust. Moreover, much of the existing literature focuses on broad, economy-wide shocks, with limited attention to sector-specific disruptions. This study addresses these gaps by investigating the long-term effects of early-life exposure to an agricultural epidemic in a low-income setting with weak social protection. Specifically, I examine the long-term impact of the cocoa swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD) epidemic, which devastated the Gold Coast’s (now Ghana) cocoa sector in the 1940s. The CSSVD caused severe yield and income losses and led to compulsory cocoa farm destruction in an environment with little institutional support. Using historical archives and georeferenced survey data, I exploit variation in exposure to the epidemic based on birth timing and ecological suitability for cocoa cultivation to estimate its long-term effects on human capital and labor market outcomes. I find that early-life exposure to the epidemic is associated with persistent human capital deficits. Affected children experienced a 1.1-year loss in schooling (a 23 percent reduction) and a 9.3 percentage point (pp) reduction in attaining any level of formal education (17 percent reduction). They also exhibited a 5.8 pp higher likelihood of morbidity (an 18.8 percent increase) and a 4.6 pp higher probability of living with a disability in adulthood (a 25.7 percent increase). The epidemic, however, had no robust, consistent long-term effects on labor market outcomes.

Technology-enabled work-at-home (WAH) has been widely adopted and accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The rapid growth of WAH is likely to transform the modern workplace and people’s behaviors regarding work, housing, and transportation. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the temporal and spatial trends of WAH in the U.S. between 2013 and 2022 at both the county and census tract levels. We combined multi-year and multi-scale American Community Survey data to illustrate the trend. Two different regression models were performed to evaluate various factors associated with the WAH rate and the change in the WAH rate, respectively. After accounting for the fixed effects of years and states, our panel model indicated that the WAH rate was negatively associated with population density, car-driving commuters, long-distance commuters, and bedrooms per capita. It was positively associated with high socio-economic status, middle-aged populations, married people, the presence of children, and house size. The model focusing on the change of WAH was largely consistent with the panel model but highlighted the potential impact of WAH in aggravating spatial disparities regarding race and ethnicity, income, education, and age. It may also reduce car driving and increase the demand for single-family houses. We discussed the policy implications relevant to our results, including issues of suburbanization, social equity, an age-friendly and family-friendly society, and transportation and housing choices.

Droughts in developing countries can have devastating effects on agricultural production and local economies, intensifying social tensions among different groups. This study investigates whether droughts affect individuals’ social intolerance, defined as the unwillingness to accept people from other social groups or identities as neighbors. Using geo-referenced data on drought conditions across Africa and individual-level data from Afrobarometer surveys conducted between 2014 and 2021 in Africa, we find that droughts increase social intolerance: a severe or extreme drought shock significantly increases the probability that an individual intolerant toward people from other religions by 11%, toward people of different ethnicities by 19%, and toward immigrants or foreign workers by 14%. This effect is concentrated among individuals living in rural areas and is more pronounced for those primarily engaged in agriculture, with low levels of education, and in regions with low ethnic or religious diversity. Additionally, we explore potential mechanisms underlying this effect. Our findings suggest that drought shocks negatively impact major crop yields, local economic activity, and employment, which may subsequently lead to increased intolerance among people.

Remote work has become a lasting feature of the U.S. labor market, offering individuals greater flexibility to live farther from their workplaces. At the same time, climate hazards such as hurricanes, droughts, and floods are growing in severity and frequency, shaping where people feel safe and comfortable living. While both trends are reshaping population movements, it remains unclear how they interact. Do climate risks deter remote workers from relocating to certain areas, or does the flexibility of telework reduce sensitivity to environmental hazards? This paper investigates how climate risk moderates the relationship between remote work and interstate migration. We construct a panel dataset of U.S. census tracts from 2013 to 2023, combining American Community Survey (ACS) data on telework and migration with hazard risk scores from FEMA’s National Risk Index. Using the composite hazard risk score, we find that remote work is associated with increased migration into higher-risk areas. Analyses of individual hazards yield similar results for riverine flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes, cold waves, and droughts. In contrast, risks such as extreme heat slightly reduce in-migration, while winter weather shows no clear effect. These findings suggest that many remote workers may prioritize affordability or lifestyle amenities over climate safety. Telework appears to be a powerful driver of migration that can override traditional deterrents like environmental risk, with important implications for planning around population growth, disaster preparedness, infrastructure investment, and the future of remote work.

This study examines the sociodemographic factors influencing financial exclusion due to religious reasons (FEDRRs). Using data from the Global Financial Inclusion Index (Findex) spanning 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021 across 159 countries, we identify key patterns in religiously motivated financial exclusion. Our findings show that older individuals are more likely to remain unbanked for religious reasons, while women are less likely than men to cite religious motivations for financial exclusion. Low-income individuals are more prone to FEDRRs compared to the middle class, but no significant differences emerge between the wealthy and middle-class groups. Education consistently reduces FEDRRs, reinforcing its role in promoting financial inclusion. The impact of these factors varies across regions, income groups, and OIC membership. Age is a key determinant in OIC countries, whereas gender and income play a larger role in non-OIC countries. Regional differences show that age increases FEDRRs in MENA, Latin America, and high-income countries but has a negative effect in Sub-Saharan Africa. Gender disparities are strongest in East Asia, Latin America, and high-income economies but are insignificant in MENA, South Asia, and lower-income countries. Poor individuals face greater FEDRRs in upper-middle and high-income countries, while in MENA, they are less likely to cite religious exclusion. These findings highlight the need for context-specific financial inclusion strategies to bridge financial accessibility gaps. Expanding religion-compliant financial services, improving financial literacy programs, and addressing regional and economic disparities will be crucial for developing inclusive financial systems that respect religious beliefs while promoting economic participation.