Publications
Kambala, M.I. (2023). Colonial Origins of Comparative Development in Ghana. The Journal of Development Studies, 59(2), 188-208.
A striking feature of Ghana’s development landscape is the stark development disparity between a relatively developed South and a trailing North. Explanations for the disparity have often been hinged on differences in geography and past colonial experience. In this study, I provide an empirical justification for the historical hypothesis that the dynamics of colonial rule contributed significantly to the development divergence between the North and the South. I exploit the asymmetric regional distribution of past colonial public investments in education, health and infrastructure to show that the dynamics of colonial rule explain a significant portion of the development disparity between the two regions. I also survey compelling historical anecdotes to show that prior to the colonial project the North was a relatively prosperous region.
Kambala, M.I. (2023). The impact of precolonial political centralisation on local development: Ghana’s Paradox. Oxford Development Studies, 51(2), 163-178.
I investigate the impact of precolonial political centralisation (PPC) on local development in Ghana. Accounting for the potential endogeneity associated with the emergence of political centralisation, I find that PPC has a strong negative impact on local development. Further, PPC does not significantly correlate with the provision of local public goods. These results are robust to a battery of sensitivity checks and a wealth of controls at a fine unit. Two mechanisms plausibly explain these findings. First, I show that past colonial public investments, which still significantly determine contemporary development outcomes in Ghana, disfavoured politically centralised regions. Second, I argue that in centralised areas colonial rule might have empowered despotic local patrons who served the interest of the colonial state at the expense of local development.
Working Papers
The Long-run Effects of Africa’s Wave of Democratization. (Job Market Paper. View/Download)
I investigate the effects of Africa’s 1990s wave of democratization on economic performance and long-run development. In the first part of the study, I document, using a dynamic panel fixed effects estimation, a robust positive impact of democratization on income per capita. When an average African country moves from a nondemocratic to a democratic regime its income per person increases by about 1.2 %. Alternatively, if it improves by 10 % on the liberal democracy index, its GDP per capita rises by 1.3 %. In the second part, I investigate the association between democratization and long-run development. To isolate the causal impact of democratization on long-run development, I exploit African borders that split same people (ethnicity) into present-day consolidated democracies and nondemocracies. In this exercise, I begin by showing grid cell-level panel fixed effects estimates of the impact of democratization on nighttime lights, a proxy of subnational development. I then use a within-ethnicity regression discontinuity specification to compute the development discontinuities across democratic-nondemocratic partitions. I find that democratic and nondemocratic partitions were at similar levels of development during the early years of democratization. However, democratic partitions became increasingly more developed over time, leading to a persistent development divergence. Today an average democratic partition is about 7 percentage points more likely to have light at night relative to its nondemocratic counterpart. I also compile an individual-level data capturing members of split ethnicities and use it to show the differential positive impact of democratization on human development and several contemporary measures of socioeconomic outcomes.
The Long-term Effects of Agricultural Epidemics: Evidence from the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Outbreak in the Gold Coast
Beginning in the mid-1930s cocoa farming, the primary economic activity in the forest belt of the Gold Coast (now Ghana), was severely affected by the cocoa swollen shoot virus disease, the most devastating virus to affect the industry. By the mid-1940s, farm output had plummeted from 30 tons to just 6 tons, with approximately 46 million cocoa trees already infected. The virus continued to spread at an alarming rate, affecting 15 million trees annually. In addition to the virus disease reducing yields and causing significant income shocks, the government enforced a policy of cutting down infected and nearby trees, further exacerbating the economic impact of the disease. This study explores the long-term effects of this income shock on children born during the peak of the epidemic. Accounting for cohort-specific factors and several confounders, I find a strong negative effect on human development, but not on labor market outcomes. The main results suggest that children born in cocoa-growing areas at the height of the epidemic experienced nearly a year loss of schooling and were more than 7 percentage points (pp) less likely to receive any formal education. Additionally, being born in cocoa areas during the epidemic increased morbidity and mortality by 5 and 3 pp, respectively. Most of these effects are particularly pronounced among girls, urban populations, and female-headed households. However, I find no consistent impacts on waged or self employment nor on workdays and work hours.
Understanding the temporal and spatial trend of work-at-home in the United States – with Wang. S (under review in Annals of American Association of Geographers) View/Download
Technology-enabled work-at-home (WAH) has been widely adopted and accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The rapid growth of WAH is likely to transform the modern workplace and people’s behaviors regarding work, housing, and transportation. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the temporal and spatial trends of WAH in the U.S. between 2013 and 2022 at both the county and census tract levels. We combined multi-year and multi-scale American Community Survey data to illustrate the trend. Two different regression models were performed to evaluate various factors associated with the WAH rate and the change in the WAH rate, respectively. After accounting for the fixed effects of years and states, our panel model indicated that the WAH rate was negatively associated with population density, car-driving commuters, long-distance commuters, and bedrooms per capita. It was positively associated with high socio-economic status, middle-aged populations, married people, the presence of children, and house size. The model focusing on the change of WAH was largely consistent with the panel model but highlighted the potential impact of WAH in aggravating spatial disparities regarding race and ethnicity, income, education, and age. It may also reduce car driving and increase the demand for single-family houses. We discussed the policy implications relevant to our results, including issues of suburbanization, social equity, an age-friendly and family-friendly society, and transportation and housing choices.
Climate Shocks and Social Intolerance – with Jakaria, M. View/Download
Droughts in developing countries can have devastating effects on agricultural productivity, local economies, and livelihoods, intensifying social tensions among different groups. This study investigates whether droughts affect individuals’ social intolerance, defined as the unwillingness to accept people from other social groups or identities as neighbors. Using georeferenced data on drought conditions across Africa and individual-level data from Afrobarometer surveys conducted between 2014 and 2021 in Africa, we find that droughts increase social intolerance: a severe or extreme drought shock significantly increases the probability that an individual is intolerant toward people of other religions by 18%, toward people from different ethnicities by 28%, and immigrants or foreign workers by 17%. This effect is concentrated among individuals living in rural areas and is more pronounced for those with lower levels of education, as well as for those residing in areas with low ethnic or religious diversity. We also explore the potential mechanisms underlying these effects using a variety of geospatial data on crop production and night lights, and our findings suggest that drought shocks negatively impact major crop yields, local economic activity, and employment, which may subsequently lead to increased intolerance among people.
Works in Progress
Modern Road Infrastructure and Cocoa Production in the Gold Coast
Quality of Local Government and Subjective Wellbeing in Africa
African Mining Economies and Local Support for Democracy