Publications

A striking feature of Ghana’s development landscape is the stark development disparity between a relatively developed South and a trailing North. Explanations for the disparity have often been hinged on differences in geography and past colonial experience. In this study, I provide an empirical justification for the historical hypothesis that the dynamics of colonial rule contributed significantly to the development divergence between the North and the South. I exploit the asymmetric regional distribution of past colonial public investments in education, health and infrastructure to show that the dynamics of colonial rule explain a significant portion of the development disparity between the two regions. I also survey compelling historical anecdotes to show that prior to the colonial project the North was a relatively prosperous region.

I investigate the impact of precolonial political centralisation (PPC) on local development in Ghana. Accounting for the potential endogeneity associated with the emergence of political centralisation, I find that PPC has a strong negative impact on local development. Further, PPC does not significantly correlate with the provision of local public goods. These results are robust to a battery of sensitivity checks and a wealth of controls at a fine unit. Two mechanisms plausibly explain these findings. First, I show that past colonial public investments, which still significantly determine contemporary development outcomes in Ghana, disfavoured politically centralised regions. Second, I argue that in centralised areas colonial rule might have empowered despotic local patrons who served the interest of the colonial state at the expense of local development.

Working Papers

I investigate the long-run effects of Africa’s 1990s democratization wave on economic performance and development. First, using a dynamic panel fixed effects model, I document a robust positive impact of democratization on income per capita. I find that being in a democratic regime – as opposed to a nondemocratic one – is associated with a 1.2 % higher income per capita, while a 10 % improvement on the liberal democracy index raises income per capita by 1.3 %. To isolate the causal impact of democratization on long-run development, I exploit African borders that partition historically and culturally homogeneous ethnic groups into present-day consolidated democracies and nondemocracies. In this exercise, I first present grid cell-level panel fixed effects estimates showing a robust positive impact of democratization on subnational development, measured by nighttime light density. I then employ a within-ethnicity geographic regression discontinuity design to compute the development disparities across democratic and nondemocratic partitions over time. I find that democratic and nondemocratic partitions were initially at similar levels of development, but democratic partitions experienced sustained development gains over time, leading to persistent divergence. By 2013, grid cells in democratic partitions were about 7 percentage points more likely to have light at night relative to their nondemocratic counterparts. Using individual-level survey data, I further show that democratization improves human development, particularly years of schooling, formal education access, and higher education completion, as well as other socioeconomic outcomes including economic security, employment, and access to public goods. (View/Download)

Beginning in the mid-1930s, cocoa farming, the primary economic activity in the forest belt of the Gold Coast (now Ghana), was severely affected by the cocoa swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD), the most devastating virus to affect the industry. By the mid-1940s, farm output had plummeted from 30 tons to just 6 tons, with approximately 46 million trees already infected. The virus continued to spread rapidly, affecting 15 million trees annually. In addition to reduced yields, severe economic shocks, heightened stress and broader social hardships caused by the virus outbreak, the government imposed a policy of cutting down infected and nearby trees, further exacerbating the impact of the crisis. This study investigates the long-term effects of the CSSVD outbreak on the human capital and labor market outcomes of children born in cocoa-growing areas during the epidemic. Using a cohort-based analysis, I find a strong negative impact of the epidemic on human capital development but find no consistent effects on labor market outcomes. Children exposed to the epidemic in utero or early childhood experienced a three-quarter-year loss in schooling and a 6.3 percentage point (pp) decline in access to formal education. Additionally, they faced a 5 pp increase in morbidity and a 3 pp rise in early mortality in adulthood. These effects were more severe for girls, children in female-headed households, and those in urban areas. In contrast, long-term labor market outcomes, such as employment status and work periods, were largely unaffected, suggesting that individuals may have adapted over time. The results highlight how early-life negative shocks can cause lasting harm to health and education, both of which are shaped early in life, while demonstrating the potential for recovery in labor market outcomes. These findings contribute to the broader literature on early-life adversities and inform policies aimed at supporting vulnerable groups during economic crises. (View/Download)

Research has extensively demonstrated the importance of national governance quality for economic performance and societal wellbeing. Yet, such aggregate analyses often overlook the impact of subnational governance, the political unit closest to the people. Consequently, the relationship between subnational governance quality (SGQ) and socioeconomic outcomes remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by investigating how (perceived) SGQ influences subjective wellbeing, using individual-level survey data from over 128,000 respondents across 34 African countries. OLS estimates suggest that a one-standard-deviation increase in SGQ decreases economic insecurity by about 3 percentage points (pp) and improves perceived living conditions by 7 pp, the two measures of subjective wellbeing employed in the study. However, these estimates may be biased due to endogeneity, such as happier individuals rating governance more favorably (reverse causality) or better-off individuals residing in well-governed areas (self selection). To address these issues, I construct a leave-out-one mean instrument which averages the governance evaluations of all other community members to instrument for an individual’s own assessment. Employing this instrument, the results confirm the causal impact of SGQ on subjective wellbeing. Specifically, a one-standard deviation increase in SGQ reduces economic insecurity by 5.2 pp and increases living conditions by 13.5 pp. These findings suggest that improving governance at the subnational level can lead to meaningful improvements in individual wellbeing.  (View/Download)

Technology-enabled work-at-home (WAH) has been widely adopted and accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The rapid growth of WAH is likely to transform the modern workplace and people’s behaviors regarding work, housing, and transportation. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the temporal and spatial trends of WAH in the U.S. between 2013 and 2022 at both the county and census tract levels. We combined multi-year and multi-scale American Community Survey data to illustrate the trend. Two different regression models were performed to evaluate various factors associated with the WAH rate and the change in the WAH rate, respectively. After accounting for the fixed effects of years and states, our panel model indicated that the WAH rate was negatively associated with population density, car-driving commuters, long-distance commuters, and bedrooms per capita. It was positively associated with high socio-economic status, middle-aged populations, married people, the presence of children, and house size. The model focusing on the change of WAH was largely consistent with the panel model but highlighted the potential impact of WAH in aggravating spatial disparities regarding race and ethnicity, income, education, and age. It may also reduce car driving and increase the demand for single-family houses. We discussed the policy implications relevant to our results, including issues of suburbanization, social equity, an age-friendly and family-friendly society, and transportation and housing choices. (View/Download)

Droughts in developing countries can have devastating effects on agricultural productivity, local economies, and livelihoods, intensifying social tensions among different groups. This study investigates whether droughts affect individuals’ social intolerance, defined as the unwillingness to accept people from other social groups or identities as neighbors. Using georeferenced data on drought conditions across Africa and individual-level data from Afrobarometer surveys conducted between 2014 and 2021 in Africa, we find that droughts increase social intolerance: a severe or extreme drought shock significantly increases the probability that an individual is intolerant toward people of other religions by 18%, toward people from different ethnicities by 28%, and immigrants or foreign workers by 17%. This effect is concentrated among individuals living in rural areas and is more pronounced for those with lower levels of education, as well as for those residing in areas with low ethnic or religious diversity. We also explore the potential mechanisms underlying these effects using a variety of geospatial data on crop production and night lights, and our findings suggest that drought shocks negatively impact major crop yields, local economic activity, and employment, which may subsequently lead to increased intolerance among people. (View/Download)

This study examines the sociodemographic factors influencing financial exclusion due to religious reasons (FEDRRs). Using data from the Global Financial Inclusion Index (Findex) spanning 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021 across 159 countries, we identify key sociodemographic patterns in religiously motivated financial exclusion. Our findings show that older individuals are more likely to remain unbanked for religious reasons, while women are less likely than men to cite religious motivations for financial exclusion. Low-income individuals are more prone to FEDRRs compared to the middle class, but no significant differences emerge between the wealthy and middle-class groups. Education consistently reduces FEDRRs, reinforcing its role in promoting financial inclusion. The impact of these factors varies across regions, income groups, and OIC membership. Age is a key determinant in OIC countries, whereas gender and income play a larger role in non-OIC countries. Regional differences show that age increases FEDRRs in MENA, Latin America, and high-income countries but has a negative effect in Sub-Saharan Africa. Gender disparities are strongest in East Asia, Latin America, and high-income economies but are insignificant in MENA, South Asia, and lower-income countries. Poor individuals face greater FEDRRs in upper-middle and high-income countries, while in MENA, they are less likely to cite religious exclusion. These findings highlight the need for context-specific financial inclusion strategies to bridge financial accessibility gaps. Expanding religion-compliant financial services, improving financial literacy programs, and addressing regional and economic disparities will be crucial for developing inclusive financial systems that respect religious beliefs while promoting economic participation. (View/Download)

Works in Progress

  • Modern Technology and Cocoa Production in the Gold Coast
  • African Mining Economies and Local Support for Democracy